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10 Feb 2017 by TSZ

TSZ Predicts The Six Nations – Week Two

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In the first weekend of this year’s Six Nations, we saw Scotland go against all predictions and beat Ireland in a thriller. Both England and Wales got off to a slow start but finished as predicted on a high, with Wales beating Italy within our predicted score margin. Let’s have a look to see how this weekend’s games may pan out and see if the data (collected from 2000) helps us get any closer to predicting the correct winner and scoreline.

Italy vs Ireland

  • Ireland have won 16 out of 17 Six Nation matches played against Italy.
  • The only time Italy have beaten Ireland was in 2013.
  • In eight of Ireland’s 16 wins, they have scored over 20 more points than Italy, with six out of the remaining eight being won by 10 or more points.
  • In 2013 – the sole occasion when Italy have beaten Ireland – Italy won both halves.
  • In only two matches has the winner of the first half (Italy) gone on to lose the match.
  • Ireland have scored more points than Italy 76% of the time in the first half and 82% of the time in the second half.


  • Ireland have beaten Italy at the Stadio Olimpico in seven out of eight matches in the Six Nations.
  • Italy’s only Six Nations victory against Ireland was at the Stadio Olimpico in 2013.


  • In 14 out of the 17 games, Ireland have scored more tries than Italy.
  • Italy have only once scored more tries than Ireland (in their 2013 win).
  • Ireland have scored four or more tries in eight out of their 17 matches.
  • The most tries Ireland have scored against Italy was nine in 2016.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

  • Johnny Sexton and Peter O'Mahony will not face Italy this weekend but should be fit to face France in two weeks' time.
  • Andrew Trimble, who has a groin injury, will also not be risked in Rome.
  • Italy have made four changes with Andries Van Schalkwyk and Simone Favaro returning to the starting line-up, whilst Angelo Esposito replaces Giulio Bisegni and Leonardo Ghiraldini returns at hooker in place of Ornel Gega.

From the data above, we predict that:

With Ireland only losing this fixture once in the Six Nations and with Italy having lost their opening game of this year’s Six Nations against Wales, we believe Ireland will win by more than 15 points this weekend.

Taking this predicted scoreline into consideration, we believe that there is a high possibility that Ireland will pick up a bonus point for scoring four or more tries during this match.

Wales vs England

  • England have won 11 of the 17 Six Nation matches played against Wales.
  • 11 out of the 17 matches have also had a points difference of no more than 15.
  • Since 2007, nine out of the 10 matches have been won by fewer than 15 points.
  • In 14 of the 17 matches, the winner of the first half has gone on to win the match.
  • In two of the remaining three matches, Wales have turned a losing first half in to a full-time win.


  • Both teams have four wins each in the eight matches they have played at the Principality Stadium in the Six Nations.
  • The last time they faced each other in the Six Nations at the Principality Stadium, England came out on top.

  • England have scored more tries than Wales in 10 of their 17 clashes, with both teams scoring the same number of tries in three matches.
  • England have scored four or more tries against Wales in four matches.
  • Wales have never score four or more tries against England in the Six Nations.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

  • England have only made two changes, with Jack Nowell and Jack Clifford starting.
  • No English players are returning from injury.
  • Wales have also only made two changes, with Nicky Smith and Samson Lee replacing Rob Evans and Tomas Francis.
  • Taulupe Faletau has been passed fit and may feature for Wales.

From the data above, we predict that:

When considering the winner and scoreline in this game, the data leaves us unsure. Games between Wales and England are normally close, with the last three years being won by fewer than 12 points. Taking last weekend’s games into account and considering that it will be played in Cardiff, we tip Wales to win by the narrowest of margins and halt England’s winning run. We predict that the winning side will win by no more than 10 points, and that neither team are likely to receive bonus points for tries scored. A bonus point for the losing side is a distinct possibility, though.

France vs Scotland

  • France have beaten Scotland in 15 of their 17 Six Nations matches.
  • On the two occasions Scotland have beaten France, it was within a margin of 11 points.
  • Since 2009, Scotland have won one game (2016) and kept six of their seven losing games to within 10 points.
  • When Scotland have won the match, they have won in both halves.
  • In 12 of the 17 games, the winner of the first half has gone on to win the match.
  • France have scored more points than Scotland 59% of the time in the first half and 88% of the time in the second half.


  • France have won every time they have faced Scotland at the Stade de France in the Six Nations.


  • In the last three years, Scotland have scored more tries than France in each match.
  • Overall, France have scored more tries in 10 of the 17 Six Nations matches between the countries.
  • France have only scored four or more tries on three occasions against Scotland in the Six Nations.
  • Scotland are yet to score four or more tries against France in the Six Nations.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

  • France has made three changes - Loann Goujon replaces Damien Chouly at blindside flanker, Christopher Tolofua replaces Clement Maynadier and Julien Le Devedec replaces Arthur Iturria.
  • Scotland has only made a single change with John Barclay stepping in for the injured Ryan Wilson.

From the data above, we predict that:

Although the stats don’t look good for Scotland, we believe that with their win against France in last year’s championship, recent performances and their fantastic opener to this year’s Six Nations, that Scotland have a chance to win this year. If they do beat France for only the third time in the Six Nations, we think it will be by fewer than 11 points, the same as their other two victories over France.

We believe that neither team will receive a bonus point for scoring four or more tries, however there is a high possibility of the losing team receiving a bonus point.

With a rest week coming up following this weekend's action, we will be previewing the following weekend’s set of fixtures in due course, and we’ll also be evaluating our predictions for this weekend. Stay tuned!

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