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09 Aug 2018 by Tim Blackwell

FPL Gameweek 1 – Projections

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It’s back!! Following a two-month absence Fantasy Premier League has returned. After a glorious summer of football culminated in France lifting the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the countdown to the new Premier League season began. Now just a day away, FPL managers are in turn going through their own countdown - working out how to achieve a balanced squad while also keeping a £13m Mohamed Salah in the picture.

By this point, initial squads have been selected, changed and changed back again. Us FPL managers are in a constant state of turmoil, scared to make changes from our default squads, worried that if we don’t then it’s a GW2 wildcard on the cards. Then just when we think we’ve finally settled on a squad for GW1, sleepless nights await as self-doubt still persists.

Still it’s all just for fun right…. right?!?!

We all know picking that initial squad is simultaneously the most exciting and hardest thing to do in FPL. While Britain has spent the summer sizzling in unprecedented heat, here at TSZ we locked away the company brains from the sunlight in an effort to improve our projection algorithms and help you pick a squad at the start of the season. The experts have done the number crunching and we are therefore in a position to suggest a number of initial starting squads:

Last Year's Dream Squad

The squad is selected using last season’s points total and this season’s player price. It has also been adjusted for players deemed very unlikely to be first teamers this season (i.e. Karius)

Last season this squad would have scored a total of 2379 points between them.

However, in reality no one averages their money out this way over their entire squad. Instead, we tend to choose a starting 11 and then work back from that. With this in mind here are the optimum squads for the four main formations used in FPL.

4-4-2

The squad is selected using last season’s points total and this season’s player price. It has also been adjusted for players deemed very unlikely to be first teamers this season (i.e. Karius). The squad budget assumes the following:

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £4.0m spent on 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 5th midfielder
  • £4.5m spent on 3rd forward

If you had played this line-up every week last year, not including captains, this 11 would have scored 1944 points.

3-4-3

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £8.5m spent on 4th and 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 5th midfielder

If you had played this line-up every week last year, not including captains, this 11 would have scored 1922 points.

3-5-2

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £8.5m spent on 4th and 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 3rd forward

If you had played this line-up every week last year, not including captains, this 11 would have scored 1936 points.

4-3-3

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £4.0m spent on 5th defender
  • £9.0m spent on 4th and 5th midfielder

If you had played this line-up every week last year, not including captains, this 11 would have scored 1925 points.

Projected Squad for the 2018-19 Season

Regular readers of our articles will know that we have a projection algorithm to help predict FPL player scores. We have used this algorithm to predict the total points each player will score across the opening six gameweeks and selected an optimum squad based on these projected scores.

The squad is projected to score 437 points over the first six gameweeks with Mo Salah projected to be the top scorer with 54 points.

4-4-2

The squad is selected using TSZ’s FPL player projection algorithm. The squad budget assumes the following:

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £4.0m spent on 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 5th midfielder
  • £4.5m spent on 3rd forward

The squad is projected to score 350 points over the first six gameweeks with Mo Salah projected to be the top scorer with 54 points.

3-4-3

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £8.5m spent on 4th and 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 5th midfielder

The squad is projected to score 359 points over the first six gameweeks with Mo Salah projected to be the top scorer with 54 points.

3-5-2

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £8.5m spent on 4th and 5th defender
  • £4.5m spent on 3rd forward

The squad is projected to score 349 points over the first six gameweeks with Mo Salah projected to be the top scorer with 54 points.

4-3-3

  • £4.5m spent on reserve keeper
  • £4.0m spent on 5th defender
  • £9.0m spent on 4th and 5th midfielder

The squad is projected to score 365 points over the first six gameweeks with Mo Salah projected to be the top scorer with 54 points.

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