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10 Jan 2019 by TSZ

Betting: Is It Worth Backing Liverpool Or Man City To Win The Premier League?

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Best odds *
Liverpool:
17/20
Man City: 7/5
* At time of publication

Standings
Liverpool:
54 points, +39 goal difference
Manchester City: 50 points, +39 goal difference

Other competitions
Liverpool:
Champions League
Manchester City:
Champions League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup

Remaining fixtures
Liverpool:
9 at home, 8 away
Manchester City: 8 at home, 9 away
Liverpool: 7 top-half teams, 10 bottom-half teams
Manchester City: 8 top-half teams, 9 bottom-half teams

Big-six teams to play
Liverpool:
Manchester United (a), Tottenham (h), Chelsea (h)
Man City: Arsenal (h), Chelsea (h), Manchester United (a), Tottenham (h)

Liverpool

  • Liverpool have lost three and drawn one of their last four trips to Old Trafford in the Premier League.
  • Manchester United have won 13 of their last 17 games at home to Liverpool in all competitions.
  • Liverpool, under Klopp, have won one and drawn two of their three home meetings with Tottenham in the Premier League.
  • Liverpool are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games at home to Tottenham (4 wins, 3 draws).
  • Chelsea’s last three Premier League trips to Liverpool have ended in 1-1 draws.
  • Chelsea have not lost in their last eight visits to Liverpool in all competitions (3 wins, 5 draws).

Man City

  • City, under Guardiola, have won four and drawn one of their five meetings with Arsenal in the Premier League.
  • City have won all three of their 2018 meetings with Arsenal in all competitions, scoring eight goals and conceding zero in the process.
  • City, under Guardiola, have lost three of their five meetings with Chelsea in the Premier League, including 3-1 at the Etihad in December 2016 and 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last month.
  • City, under Guardiola, have won 2-1 on both their visits to Manchester United in the Premier League.
  • City have won five and drawn one of their last seven trips to Old Trafford in the Premier League.
  • Tottenham have a win, draw and loss apiece in their last three games away to Manchester City in the Premier League.

Who to back?
It’s understandable that Liverpool are favourites to end a 29-year wait to become English champions. They boast a four-point cushion with 17 rounds remaining. They only dropped six points in the opening 20 rounds, while City have dropped nine in their last six outings.

Furthermore, Jurgen Klopp will soon have Joe Gomez and Joel Matip back at his disposal, while elimination from the two domestic cups means Liverpool have fewer matches than City to burden them.

Hang fire, however, on putting a few quid on The Reds. The Stats Zone feels the tide is about to turn. Here’s why…

Injuries
Should Liverpool lose Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino or Mohamed Salah to injury, it would consequentially harm them. By bold contrast, seemingly everybody has a different view on what City’s best XI is.

Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling and David Silva are the three City attacking midfielders to have played the most minutes this season, while Sergio Aguero seems to have made the striker’s spot his own. Leroy Sane, club-record signing Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus, are excellent good back-ups to call upon.

Kevin De Bruyne, seen by many as City’s best player, is ready to start playing regularly following an injury-ravaged first half of the campaign, while the brilliant Bernard Mendy is expected to be back in early February.

A bye versus Bayern
A Schalke side 13th out of 18 in the Bundesliga is an effective bye into the Champions League quarter-finals for City. Liverpool, worryingly, have to face Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich, David Alaba, Leon Goretzka, Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, Robert Lewandowski and a Bayern Munich outfit that has reached the semi-finals in five of the past six seasons (they lost to Real Madrid in the quarters in 2016-17). These two fixtures smile on City’s Premier League crown chances.

That extra half-point (goal difference)
Liverpool and Manchester City may be level on goal difference, but expect the latter to cruise home victors in this department.

Salah has played the full 90 in each of Liverpool’s last six Premier League games, but as the season wears on and injury risk heightens, Klopp will probably begin limiting his go-to guy’s minutes. Clock-capping will also befall Mane and Firmino, and Daniel Sturridge and Divock Origi are simply not capable enough deputies in a title-aspiring team.

City are masters at pummelling opponents in the last 25 minutes of matches. Who would fancy, after a gruelling hour-plus against City, having the likes of Sane, Sterling, Bernardo Silva, Mahrez, Jesus and Aguero unleashed upon them?

Verdict
Expect Liverpool to start slipping up in matches you wouldn’t foresee, while away clashes with fierce enemies Everton and Manchester United are potential banana skins.

City, meanwhile, are set to go on a tear. Arsenal are unlikely to take points off them in Gameweek 25, and the same goes for Chelsea in Gameweek 26. Manchester United away will be the big test, but City should seize enough points elsewhere to defend their title.

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