At 9pm UK time tonight, the first men’s singles semi-final at the US Open gets underway, with big-serving Kevin Anderson taking on Pablo Carreno Busta on Arthur Ashe.
It’s actually the 26-year-old Carreno Busta who boasts the slightly better win-loss record this year. The Spaniard has won 35 of 51 main tour matches, whilst Anderson has won 28 from 43. Anderson’s serve data is much stronger though, winning 70% of service points compared to Carreno Busta's 65%.
However, Carreno Busta has a slight edge on return points won, and this translates to a much better 42% break deficit recovery percentage (as opposed to Anderson’s mediocre 24%), although Anderson is much more solid when leading, losing just 21% of break leads.
There isn’t a huge amount to split the duo, and a competitive semi-final is expected.