With the end of the season fast approaching, teams in the hunt for promotion will be hoping to either get promoted automatically or go up via the playoffs. In a series of reports TSZ will be looking at historical data in terms of where have the eventual play off winners finished in the league and whether momentum from the last 6 games plays an important role. This piece will focus on League 2.
League 2 has three automatic promotion places available with 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th position all going into the play off. To start with we will take a quick look at what position in the league the play off winners in the last 10 years finished.
- Finishing 5th or 7th has yielded the most success statistically over the last 10 years but there is no massive advantage for finishing in any of the 4 positions.
At the end of a lengthy season the buzz word you’ll hear cropping up from mangers in the promotion race is momentum. So next up we will look at the form from the last 6 games over the last 10 years. The numbers in red denote the play off winners for that season.
- Interestingly we can see that over the last 10 years, on 5 occasions the team that has picked up the most points in the last 6 games and has that coveted momentum has been promoted via the play offs.
- In 9 out of the last 10 seasons the team that has been promoted has picked up a minimum of 10 points from their final 6 games, could this offer us an insight into who will be going up this time around?
- Only on 1 occasion has the team with the lowest points total from their final 6 games gone on to be promoted, this feat goes to Stevenage in the 2010/11 season.
So it seems there is no massive advantage in terms of which position a team finishes at the end of the season; however momentum does seem to have some influence, most notably teams that have no momentum seriously decrease their chances of being promoted via the play offs.